Will Home Prices Fall, or Is a Crash Coming?

After years of rising home prices, many buyers are understandably wondering: Is the housing market finally going to crash? Will prices come down soon?

According to Josiah Burdge, it’s one of the most common questions she hears. “Affordability is tight, the headlines are intense, and people are hoping for relief,” he says. “But when you look at the actual data, a crash is very unlikely.”

Why the Market Isn’t Crashing

The biggest reason experts, including those at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, don’t expect a crash is because of the simple laws of supply and demand.

Housing inventory across the U.S. remains historically low. At the same time, there’s still strong demand from buyers—especially Millennials and Gen Z entering their prime homebuying years.

“That imbalance keeps prices supported,” explains Josiah Burdge. "Even though price growth has slowed down from the frenzy we saw in 2020 and 2021, we’re still seeing moderate appreciation in most markets."

The Truth Behind the Headlines

It’s easy to find dramatic housing market predictions online. Social media, in particular, tends to amplify the idea that a massive price drop is just around the corner. But according to recent data, that narrative doesn’t hold up.

“A lot of people are waiting for a 20% crash that may never come,” says Burdge. "The reality is, most markets are seeing either slight increases or stable prices. Some overheated areas may experience small corrections, but nothing like 2008."

What Makes Today Different Than 2008

The housing crash of 2008 was driven by risky lending, oversupply, and a foreclosure crisis. Today’s market looks very different:

• Lending standards are tighter

• Homeowners have record-high equity

• Inventory is constrained, not flooded

These factors create a much more stable foundation. "We’re not seeing the red flags that led to the last crash," Burdge points out.

Should You Wait for Prices to Drop?

Trying to time the market is always tricky—especially when predictions don’t match the data. If you're a buyer, Josiah Burdge advises focusing on what you can control.

“Instead of waiting for a massive drop that may not happen, look at your current budget and goals,” he says. "You might find a great opportunity now, especially if rates come down in the future and you can refinance."

He also notes that delaying could mean facing more competition in 2026, especially if demand surges again.

The Bottom Line

While some local markets may see minor price adjustments, a nationwide housing crash is unlikely. The fundamentals—low inventory and strong demand—continue to support home values.

As Josiah Burdge explains, understanding what’s really driving the market can help you make smarter, more confident decisions.

Sources:
Realtor.com, FreddieMac.com, CNBC.com, NAR.realtor